Keep crying ugly, fat girl.

28-27.

LOLOLOL

Pretty funny Brady-ism

"My first start came against the Colts," Brady said. "And Peyton came over on our field and said, 'Hey, Peyton Manning.' And I said, 'no shit.''"

Why I'm starting Vince Young

I think this is the biggest week of the season

with how close all the records seem to be, I think this week may secretly be the most important one of all...from a 'who DIDN'T you start' perspective.

Look at all the dead points on teams out there this week (winners and losers); also, remember points will be a (potential) huge tiebreaker come the end of the year. Some teams left 30 points on their bench this week!

I'm not sure we've had a week this year where so many people had big time performances from guys not playing.

And then

So, if you're holding a key Colt or Saint - Brees, Manning, & their receivers - are you feeling screwed out of a championship via a week 16 scratch?

useless stats for dummies like me.

So I was worried about the prediction of points and opinion is that the provided projects are handily unreliable. Then I started worrying about how many points would one need to regularly score to win.

So I pulled the numbers through week ten and found that of the 50 wins the average winner earned 102.7 points/win. The lowest winning team points was the goat's week 4 win with 62 points against vds and the highest winning point total was humorously vds with 148 in week 6 against sc.

Yet the league leading goat has an average point per win of 91.2 pts/matchup. And our league trailing sh almost hit the average points per win right on the nose at 102.8 per win. (22 wins with above average points earned and 28 wins with below average points earned.

My summary question was answered (for a matchup in the first ten weeks). If you earn 80 or more points, you win 92% of the time.

Now to get the weather data to see if there is a tie in to weather and scoring.
Week 3 was the lowest week for winners with all five winners scoring under 100 pts, with an 89.8 average. Week 6 was the best with an average at 112.2, but only 3 of 5 winners scored higher than the average?

Wait for the end...

First, you'll laugh, then you'll be (possibly) uncomfortable, then you'll laugh again...then, if you're an NC State fan, you'll get just a little angry.

Mathematically, It's Possible

Can we all finish dead even? Or even all at 6-6?

I looked at our schedules and it is possible for all teams to 6-6 but (Sidekick check the math) it's approx a 1/1024 chance of that happening (Or only 1 possible route with 2^10 games). That computes to 0.1% chance.

As for all of us ending up 7-7, well that's a little more complicated. There are 1,048,576 possible combos of our remaining games. There are 108 scenarios where all 10 teams end up 7-7...total likelihood is 0.01%, assuming every game's outcome is a coin flip.

Oh shit.

Ronnie Brown(notes) sprained his ankle in the third quarter against the Bucs and didn't return. With Miami scheduled to play on Thursday night in Week 11, his availability is in serious doubt: "But, in all likelihood, it will keep him out of Miami's next game Thursday at Carolina. 'Obviously, I can't really talk about it right now,' Brown said. 'We've still got to do some tests and see what happens. We did some X-rays. I don't think it's too bad.'" If you've got Ricky Williams(notes) on the roster, you can't sit him in the we

We aren't likely to learn much about Michael Turner's(notes) ankle injury until Monday afternoon. There's no obvious reason to expect him to shake it off, though. His foot was in a boot after the Falcons' loss to Carolina. These were his postgame comments when asked if the team told him the extent of the injury: "They wouldn't say [anything] right now," Turner said. "I'm just going to keep an open mind. It's an ankle sprain. We'll take it from there and just do what we can do."

any chance of 71+ defensive points?

predicted points vs actual

is there a method to compare the accuracy of the predicted output against the real values. as a rookie I make some/many decisions based on the projected points. is there any data saying that this far in the season that the projection has been reliable. Anecdotally, IYG is 50 behind the predicted output; as is RHC. Of course 50 behind 80 and 50 behind 120 are far cries apart. .

It Really Could Happen

Looked at the scores and it's entirely possible this week ends with 8 teams at 5-5 along with a 4-6 and 6-4. Now that would be sweet.

My Appologies to the G.

But I'm on the side of South Caroina.

War Fedor!!!!!!1

No Need to Play Them

I went ahead and put each player through a statistical model to create a distribution of scores. Then I put the players on the right team to make the best starting roster for each of us. Then I ran our actual fantasy football schedule to see the final results. I then played every game 100,000 times. All scores are based on past performance so a player like Ryan Moats doesn't get much credit since he came on late. The strength of the NFL schedule is not accounted for, either. Also, I can't take into account any injuries so a guy like Clinton Portis gets to play this week even though it's doubtful. Obviously, I can't adjust for future injuries.

So what do we have? The class of the league is Spooner Express who also has an easy schedule. Smallville Crows aren't getting their due as a tough schedule down the stretch eats them. The most lop-sided game in the future is In Yo Grill over Sam Hamwich (wins 91.2% of the time). The closest game is Mustprotectthishouse over The GOATS (55.6% chance).

Average Score (No Kickers or Defense)

Spooner 86
Road House 84
Corn Rocket 79
In Yo Grill 79
Viable Draft Strategy 76
Smallville Crows 74
Mustprotect 71
The GOATS 70
EH All Stars 63
Sam Hamwich 62

The Week's Games

Corn Rocket 65% chance of beating Smallville Crows
Spooner 78% chance of beating Mustprotecthishouse
In Yo Grill 76% chance of beating The GOATS
Road House Coolers 83% chance of beating EH All Stars
Viable Draft Strategy 77% chance of beating Sam Hamwich

The Season Results

Road House Coolers 10-4 1313
SpoonerExpressRedux 9-5 1287
In Yo Grill 9-5 1249
Mustprotecthishouse 8-6 1185
The Corn Rocket 8-6 1147
Smallville Crows 7-7 1257
ViableDraftStrategy 7-7 1236
The G.O.A.Ts 5-9 1100
EH AllStars 4-10 1109
Sam Hamwich 3-11 1010

Lots of fun last night.

T Bone & I went back & forth a couple times before Hines Ward bent me over and ended my winning streak.

Someone Call Me a Liar

The Viable Draft Strategy - Must Protect This House affair isn't over yet, but it appears the week may end with all but the last place team at 5-4 or 4-5. Remarkable parity. My theory is that there have been no injuries, very few 'bust' players, and owners of a bust player were off set by a surprise.

Lack of Notable Injuries: Owen Daniels. That's it. Westbrook (IYG), Calvin Johnson (CR), and Gore (CR) have missed 2-3 games each.

Bust/Surprise Offset:
In Yo Grill: Westbrook bust for Cedric Benson
Road House Coolers: L Tomlinson & Steve Smith bust for Ray Rice
Corn Rocket: Calvin Johnson bust for Steve Smith and Joe Flacco

Sadly, there's Sam Hamwich who drafted well but got screwed. Busts include Boldin, Terrell Owens, and a borderline for Matt Forte...not off set by any surprises.

So here we are, all tied up and starting down the stretch. I say the winners avoid the injury bug cause this is too close to call.

Okay, First Time I Feel Good at the 4 O'Clock Games

Believe it or not, my top 5 draft picks still have not all been active in a single week. I'm hoping next week it can happen.

I'm rocking my dad's frat pick'em league, too. If San Fran, Detroit, and NY Giants all win I"m atop their standings. New Orleans winning helps, too, but since only 1 of the hundred people picked Carolina I can just root for my home team.

Huzzah!!!!

Housh has scored a point!





Cocksucker.

Dec 12 tix

I'm going to get some seats at the Reynolds game again. Dec 12th (saturday) against GA Southern, I believe. . .

Anyone wanna join the C-train for a Reynolds game?

I'll probably take him to some high school basketball this year too so he can see it up close. I think the seats we would get at RBC are too far from/above the court for C to enjoy.

Find the Funny.

12. 1947 Yankees (95-57, .630. plus-226, won World Series in seven games)Joe DiMaggio was named AL MVP despite hitting only 20 homers and driving in 97 runs. Why? Because he was Joe DiMaggio, that's why. (Actually, those were pretty good numbers for that year: He was sixth in homers and third in RBIs.) The team's secret weapon was reliever Joe Page, who pitched 141 innings, won 14 games and saved 17. So he threw as many innings in one year as Mariano Rivera throws in two. Take that, Mariano! (Although Mariano wasn't saddled with the nickname "The Gay Reliever." Not that there's anything wrong with that.)

Damn you AJ for stealing the ATL defense.

Jason "Checkdown" Campbell was supposed to be my target this week.
Oh well. Anyone have any trade bait for the Seattle D ? They're playing the Lions this weekend.

BTW -- I think there is a game tonight, so get your rosters updated ASAP.

start training at christmas anyone?

Silent and swift edit, like a ninja editor


Viva La Revolucion!!!

also

Marathon Page

It's a flat one without driving down to kiawah. It does have the 'just ran this road a moment ago' problem, but compared to death by umstead. . .

I may have posted something like this before, but

here are a couple of my favorite sports pics (football specific):

This just about perfectly sums it up for me.

My feelings on Wolfpack Football this year