useless stats for dummies like me.

So I was worried about the prediction of points and opinion is that the provided projects are handily unreliable. Then I started worrying about how many points would one need to regularly score to win.

So I pulled the numbers through week ten and found that of the 50 wins the average winner earned 102.7 points/win. The lowest winning team points was the goat's week 4 win with 62 points against vds and the highest winning point total was humorously vds with 148 in week 6 against sc.

Yet the league leading goat has an average point per win of 91.2 pts/matchup. And our league trailing sh almost hit the average points per win right on the nose at 102.8 per win. (22 wins with above average points earned and 28 wins with below average points earned.

My summary question was answered (for a matchup in the first ten weeks). If you earn 80 or more points, you win 92% of the time.

Now to get the weather data to see if there is a tie in to weather and scoring.
Week 3 was the lowest week for winners with all five winners scoring under 100 pts, with an 89.8 average. Week 6 was the best with an average at 112.2, but only 3 of 5 winners scored higher than the average?

Wait for the end...

First, you'll laugh, then you'll be (possibly) uncomfortable, then you'll laugh again...then, if you're an NC State fan, you'll get just a little angry.

Mathematically, It's Possible

Can we all finish dead even? Or even all at 6-6?

I looked at our schedules and it is possible for all teams to 6-6 but (Sidekick check the math) it's approx a 1/1024 chance of that happening (Or only 1 possible route with 2^10 games). That computes to 0.1% chance.

As for all of us ending up 7-7, well that's a little more complicated. There are 1,048,576 possible combos of our remaining games. There are 108 scenarios where all 10 teams end up 7-7...total likelihood is 0.01%, assuming every game's outcome is a coin flip.

Oh shit.

Ronnie Brown(notes) sprained his ankle in the third quarter against the Bucs and didn't return. With Miami scheduled to play on Thursday night in Week 11, his availability is in serious doubt: "But, in all likelihood, it will keep him out of Miami's next game Thursday at Carolina. 'Obviously, I can't really talk about it right now,' Brown said. 'We've still got to do some tests and see what happens. We did some X-rays. I don't think it's too bad.'" If you've got Ricky Williams(notes) on the roster, you can't sit him in the we

We aren't likely to learn much about Michael Turner's(notes) ankle injury until Monday afternoon. There's no obvious reason to expect him to shake it off, though. His foot was in a boot after the Falcons' loss to Carolina. These were his postgame comments when asked if the team told him the extent of the injury: "They wouldn't say [anything] right now," Turner said. "I'm just going to keep an open mind. It's an ankle sprain. We'll take it from there and just do what we can do."

any chance of 71+ defensive points?

predicted points vs actual

is there a method to compare the accuracy of the predicted output against the real values. as a rookie I make some/many decisions based on the projected points. is there any data saying that this far in the season that the projection has been reliable. Anecdotally, IYG is 50 behind the predicted output; as is RHC. Of course 50 behind 80 and 50 behind 120 are far cries apart. .

It Really Could Happen

Looked at the scores and it's entirely possible this week ends with 8 teams at 5-5 along with a 4-6 and 6-4. Now that would be sweet.

My Appologies to the G.

But I'm on the side of South Caroina.

War Fedor!!!!!!1

No Need to Play Them

I went ahead and put each player through a statistical model to create a distribution of scores. Then I put the players on the right team to make the best starting roster for each of us. Then I ran our actual fantasy football schedule to see the final results. I then played every game 100,000 times. All scores are based on past performance so a player like Ryan Moats doesn't get much credit since he came on late. The strength of the NFL schedule is not accounted for, either. Also, I can't take into account any injuries so a guy like Clinton Portis gets to play this week even though it's doubtful. Obviously, I can't adjust for future injuries.

So what do we have? The class of the league is Spooner Express who also has an easy schedule. Smallville Crows aren't getting their due as a tough schedule down the stretch eats them. The most lop-sided game in the future is In Yo Grill over Sam Hamwich (wins 91.2% of the time). The closest game is Mustprotectthishouse over The GOATS (55.6% chance).

Average Score (No Kickers or Defense)

Spooner 86
Road House 84
Corn Rocket 79
In Yo Grill 79
Viable Draft Strategy 76
Smallville Crows 74
Mustprotect 71
The GOATS 70
EH All Stars 63
Sam Hamwich 62

The Week's Games

Corn Rocket 65% chance of beating Smallville Crows
Spooner 78% chance of beating Mustprotecthishouse
In Yo Grill 76% chance of beating The GOATS
Road House Coolers 83% chance of beating EH All Stars
Viable Draft Strategy 77% chance of beating Sam Hamwich

The Season Results

Road House Coolers 10-4 1313
SpoonerExpressRedux 9-5 1287
In Yo Grill 9-5 1249
Mustprotecthishouse 8-6 1185
The Corn Rocket 8-6 1147
Smallville Crows 7-7 1257
ViableDraftStrategy 7-7 1236
The G.O.A.Ts 5-9 1100
EH AllStars 4-10 1109
Sam Hamwich 3-11 1010

Lots of fun last night.

T Bone & I went back & forth a couple times before Hines Ward bent me over and ended my winning streak.