Can we all finish dead even? Or even all at 6-6?
I looked at our schedules and it is possible for all teams to 6-6 but (Sidekick check the math) it's approx a 1/1024 chance of that happening (Or only 1 possible route with 2^10 games). That computes to 0.1% chance.
As for all of us ending up 7-7, well that's a little more complicated. There are 1,048,576 possible combos of our remaining games. There are 108 scenarios where all 10 teams end up 7-7...total likelihood is 0.01%, assuming every game's outcome is a coin flip.
6 comments:
All of us ending up 8 & 8 is beyond the possible of possibility!
That would mean that everyone makes the playoffs and goes 1 & 1.
Edit made...keep getting Fantasy and real life confused. Same thing happens at work.
The incestuousness of the schedules made my head swim, so here's how I approached it (which is wrong, but whatev); I'm also assuming that each match up is 50/50 going down the stretch.
AJ and Pooler would both need to go 3-1 over the final 4 (actually AJ needs to go 1-3, but it's the same thing in terms of the calculations).
There are 16 possible outcomes for their final 4 games, and 4 of them have them achieving the 3-1 mark. That's a 25% chance of success.
The rest of us need to go 2-2 over the last four to end up tied. Again, 16 outcomes; this time there are 6 successes in there, giving us each a 37.5% chance.
This is where my math falls apart: assuming they are independent events (NOT!), then the probability is:
.25^2*.375^8=.0000244
The issue is that the interconnectedness of the schedules makes it a nightmare to look at all the possibilities and figure out how many "successes" are contained therein.
By the way, I'm supposed to be helping a student right now, but instead I'm over here trying to work this out.
Well, I'm supposed to be serving the state of North Carolina so...
yeah, I don't think it's possible/practical to do anything past two weeks into future by hand. I put them into SAS and watched the numbers grow exponentially week-by-week. By 5 weeks into the future, there's over 33 million combos.
BTW... I need you to schedule some time in the future to teach the Wee Man chess.
Shall we limit it to chess? Or are there more geek-a-riffic activities that I've got experience with? Boy Scouts, Science Club, Math team? I got geek in spades.
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