Tuesday, November 10, 2009

No Need to Play Them

I went ahead and put each player through a statistical model to create a distribution of scores. Then I put the players on the right team to make the best starting roster for each of us. Then I ran our actual fantasy football schedule to see the final results. I then played every game 100,000 times. All scores are based on past performance so a player like Ryan Moats doesn't get much credit since he came on late. The strength of the NFL schedule is not accounted for, either. Also, I can't take into account any injuries so a guy like Clinton Portis gets to play this week even though it's doubtful. Obviously, I can't adjust for future injuries.

So what do we have? The class of the league is Spooner Express who also has an easy schedule. Smallville Crows aren't getting their due as a tough schedule down the stretch eats them. The most lop-sided game in the future is In Yo Grill over Sam Hamwich (wins 91.2% of the time). The closest game is Mustprotectthishouse over The GOATS (55.6% chance).

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